By Doug Stephens
Each year, thousands of global retail insiders descend on New York City to talk shop at the National Retail Federation’s annual conference. Alongside nearly 20,000 attendees, the annual event reliably crowns a single “hero” trend or technology – the idea that dominates stage time, conversation, and the trade-show floor.
This year, to no one’s surprise, that topic was artificial intelligence.
Retail leaders took the stage to showcase the initiatives, tactics, and milestones tied to integrating AI into nearly every corner of their businesses. From AI-driven supply chains and HR systems to AI-powered search and customer experience, no artificial stone was left unturned.
What was conspicuously absent at the show, however, was any meaningful discussion of the harder, more uncomfortable questions AI raises – not just for business, but for society at large. The questions that political, business, and technology leaders today seem far more comfortable sidestepping, even though they will ultimately determine whether future generations view AI as a blessing or a curse.
That’s why I was both encouraged and relieved by a session I was commissioned to deliver by a client for a large customer group of global retail executives. In their brief, they explicitly asked me not just to explore what agentic AI technology is and what it can do, but also to examine its deeper risks – and potential impact on consumer trust.
The Questions Too Few Are Asking
Having just completed work on a coming book that looks at this and other such issues, I was happy to oblige. And while no one holds all the answers, I implored the group to consider several key questions. Questions that have a profound impact on their businesses today and our society tomorrow.
What is the future role of education when AI absorbs much of today’s entry-level work? We are already seeing early signs of displacement in roles traditionally filled by new graduates. How must education systems evolve in response?
What skills will tomorrow’s graduates need that today’s do not? In a world where AI handles much of the information gathering, analysis, and reporting, will graduates arrive to the workforce equipped with the critical thinking, communication, and creative problem-solving skills business requires? And if not, will business be forced to step into the educational void to build and nurture these vital skills?
What does a society with 20, 30, or even 40 percent employment look like, and what risks does it pose for business? History shows that when large segments of society have lots of time but little money, crime – both organized and opportunistic – tends to rise sharply. How will business deal with it?
Does AI push income and wealth disparities to the breaking point? AI promises to drive exponential efficiency and productivity – much of which will come as a direct result of removing human capital. Will the shareholder class inherit a windfall while the working class inherits the wind? And in doing so, will we create a world of more powerful companies without consumers to buy from them?
How do communities maintain public infrastructure as income tax bases shrink? Businesses need roads on which to move inventory. They depend on police and fire departments to protect their assets. Who pays to maintain these public systems while income and payroll tax revenues fall? Do corporations shoulder a greater share through higher corporate taxes or productivity taxes tied to AI displacement of human labor? Few corporate leaders appear eager to advocate for either, despite their heavy reliance on public infrastructure.
What happens to displaced middle-class professionals? Most Universal Basic Income pilots involve modest supplements. How does that help a $120,000-a-year accounting supervisor suddenly replaced by an agentic workflow? In other words, how do people survive – let alone lead gainful, prosperous consumer lives.
What psychological impact will AI have on “the new consumer”? Beyond job loss, we are already seeing AI systems produce sexualized and violent content – sometimes intentionally unleashed by their creators. What comes next, and how do consumers absorb it?
Do deepfakes push our information ecosystem and the democracies that rely on it, into even greater peril? Already, in our current media environment misinformation and propaganda proliferates. Democracies across the world are suffering for it. Will ubiquitous AI be the final nail in democracy’s coffin?
And perhaps most critically, why have governments and industry failed to place firm guardrails around a technology this socially and commercially disruptive? There are virtually no rules or red lines governing the use of what amounts to nuclear grade business technology. Are we inviting an AI disaster to our doorsteps?
I fully expected these topics to make the audience uncomfortable. I expected that audience questions – if there were any at all – would revert back to the more comfortable ground of the technology itself and what it could do for their businesses. The geeky stuff. To my surprise, the opposite happened. During the Q&A, these tougher questions were precisely the issues people wanted to probe further. As though there was a collective feeling of catharsis in discussing the issues that really mattered to the lives and businesses of the leaders in the room.
The Technology Is Never What Matters
Someone once said the hardest part of technological change is never the technology itself, but the social change that follows. We learned that lesson the hard way with social media. Two generations of children are now grappling with the mental-health consequences of our industry’s uncritical embrace of platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and X. We literally funded the monster that consumed our children. All in the name of business. We cannot make the same mistake again.
Doug Stephens has been called “the futurist that futurists follow”. As one of the world’s foremost business futurists and retail industry experts, he decodes the forces reshaping commerce and translates them into strategic advantage.
Stephens is an internationally bestselling author of three books on the future of consumerism including the soon-to-be-released, The Future of Competitive Advantage: A Business Plan to Save Your Customers, Your Company and Democracy. His insights provide a roadmap for businesses seeking to thrive amid radical shifts in technology, consumer behavior, and competitive landscapes.