Archive for the ‘The Future’ Category

Why Facebook’s New “Timeline” Could Change Retail Forever

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

By Doug Stephens

At today’s F8 Conference in San Francisco, Facebook announced a complete overhaul to the user profile page with the advent of what it’s calling “timeline”.  Fast Company’s E.B Boyd characterized timeline as “a scrapbook on steroids” of the user’s life. Events, relationships, photos and video will populate an individual’s timeline, creating a living memory of their entire life.

Moreover, within timelines, users will be able to find, share and even purchase digital content such as music, books and movies.   So, for example, if a friend of yours likes a movie, the functionality will exist for you to purchase and download that same movie instantly from an Apple-esque app store that will reside within Facebook.

Although Mark Zuckerberg refrained from commenting on the revenue model of this service, it doesn’t take advanced math to calculate the profit potential, especially when each calculation begins with 700,000,000+ users!

This leads to the broader question of “If I can buy a song via my timeline or a friends timeline, why not a vacation, a TV or a gym membership?” – “If I can buy digital content, why not products and services, like house cleaning or landscaping?”  And all from the convenience of my profile page.  In other words, rather than looking for the things I want, could the things I want find me?

I, for one, believe the simple answer to all all of this is “yes”.  The only remaining question is when? And while the timing may be up for debate, what is certain is that the foundation for a functional, real-time and socially powered marketplace was laid today.  And for all those retailers who have been questioning the value of Facebook to revenue, you may be about to get your answer.

The Declining Need for and Escalating Value of Human Service

Sunday, September 18th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

Technology has been steadily reducing the number of human service interactions we require in an average day. For at least the last decade, the list of what we as consumers can do for ourselves is growing rapidly.   Between kiosks, web based solutions and mobile apps, most routine customer service functions (product knowledge, price checks, inventory inquiries etc.) are now completely do-it-yourself.

With this “self-serve revolution” in place, it’s easy to regard human, person-to-person service as a somewhat archaic commodity for which the market value must be dropping.  I’ve actually heard retail executives say as much, inferring that customer service people have become merely low value cogs in the machine.  Not only do I completely disagree, but I’d go so far as to say that any company that adopts this attitude is making a colossal and potentially fatal mistake.

There’s no app for empathy

What technology has done is to automate the most routine and repetitive customer service tasks; the real mind numbing stuff that deserved to be mechanized.  What is hasn’t done (at least not yet) is automate advanced problem solving skills, empathy and likeability.  Hence, customer service as we know it, is evolving to become less about functional skills and more about cognitive reasoning and emotional intelligence – the really hard stuff!

Technology hasn’t lowered the value of personal service, it’s raised it.  As the need for personal, human service declines, its value in circumstances where it is required becomes exponentially higher!  It’s precisely because we can do so much ourselves that when we encounter something we can’t, it’s literally jarring.  Consequently, the stakes are immediately higher.  These are situations where the customer has already reviewed your frequently asked questions board, called your automated help line and read your user’s manual.  They’ve made every attempt to solve their own problem – all to no avail.  The only remaining option is to call an expert who can help.  The human being they call or visit at your business is the last and most vital stopping block between your customer and your competitor’s doorstep.

Moments of Truth

A great example of a company that gets this concept is Zappos. 75% of Zappos sales are transacted without any interference from a human being – all totally systematized.  Most businesses would invest proportionately in the side of the business that generates the majority of sales – the automated 75%.  And yet, Zappos puts incredible emphasis on the hiring, training and compensation of the people who respond to the 25% of sales that do require personal service.  The rationale is simple; the 25% personal sales are regarded as do-or-die moments of truth when the system won’t cut it and when the customer needs the brand to truly perform.  These are the sales that create memorable experiences and word of mouth.  To skimp on talent at these most pivotal circumstances discredits the entire brand.

The best analogy I’ve heard is that the role of the customer service person today is much like that of an airline pilot.  The pilot is not paid to fly the plane – that’s almost completely done by the autopilot system.  Rather, the pilot is paid to be there in the critical moment when the system fails.

Spend Shift and the new era of consumerism

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

The economic recovery in North America has been anything but easy but according to best selling author, John Gerzema, the end result may not be entirely bad.  

I talked with John about his latest book, Spend Shift: How the Post-Crisis Values Revolution is Changing the Way We Buy, Sell and Live. It chronicles the collapse of a 30 year era of unprecedented and often mindless consumption and the subsequent emergence of a  decidedly different, values-driven and empowered consumer.

This new consumer, he suggests, is one that all companies, regardless of what they sell, must intimately understand,  if they’re to survive the return to more thoughtful consumption.

John is a two-time Wall Street Journal best selling author, Executive Chairman at BrandAsset Consulting and oversees strategy for the Young & Rubicam group of companies. He is also an acclaimed TED speaker. I spoke with John from his offices in New York City.

Full podcast here


The Income Gap: The Growing Chasm Between Server and Served

Tuesday, August 16th, 2011

Review any retail sales training program written in the past 50 years and you’ll likely encounter multiple references to the word “rapport”.  Rapport, or the relationship and understanding between people that builds trust and confidence, has long been regarded as a vital aspect of effective selling. The idea is that in order to properly assess and address the needs of the consumer, the salesperson has to be able to fundamentally relate to those needs.  Then and only then, the theory asserts, can salespeople recommend the best product, from personal experience, to satisfy the customer’s needs, with credibility.  In other words, the more alike the lives of the customer and the sales associate are, the easier it is to build rapport.

Over the past 30 years however, the economic distance between the lowest paid Americans (many of whom are frontline retail workers) and the highest paid, has been widening at an alarming rate. The likelihood that retail workers are serving someone outside their economic bracket is escalating.   In fact, a recent study showed that a mere 5% of all consumers now account for at least 37% of all consumer outlays. Contrast this with the 80% of income earners below them who only amount to only 39.5% of consumer outlays and the problem presents itself quite clearly.   The retail sales associate of today earning a national median hourly wage of $9.94 per hour, is less similar to their customer (from a socioeconomic standpoint) than they have been in more than 100 years.

It wasn’t always this way

Incomes in America have not always been so divergent.  In fact, through the 1930’s and 1940’s income distribution actually improved. Through the boom in growth in the 1950’s and 1960’s the spread between the lowest and highest earners remained stable. It’s the period from 1979 to the present that writer Timothy Noah refers to as the “Great Divergence”.

Noah points out that in 1979 an individual in the top 20% of all income earners had an income 8 times that of someone in the bottom 20%.  By 2007 the ratio had risen sharply to 14 times.  Similarly, the ratio between the middle 20% and the bottom 20% also increased, from 3 times greater in 1979 to 4 times greater in 2007.

The causes for the inequity are varied and fervently debated.  Political and taxation policy, foreign trade, the decline in the power of labor unions, the premium paid to college educated workers and blatant inequities in CEO and executive compensation and incentives have all been implicated to varying extents for the growing imbalance.

This expanding chasm between the lowest and highest paid in American society raises obvious concern from a social standpoint but also presents significant challenges to businesses attempting to design and deliver a premium service experience through their frontline retail staff – many of whom may be living near or below the poverty line.

For this reason, retail has largely ceased to be regarded as a career and instead is seen by many to be a mere stopping point on the way to something better.  This in turn has contributed to epic turnover in the industry and presented issues for retailers attempting to train and retain their best staff.

Keeping Up

Beginning in 2007, Washington began to make small upward adjustments to Federal minimum wage, which stood at $5.15 for the previous ten years, taking it first to $5.85, then to $6.55 in 2008 and finally to $7.25 in 2009, where it remains today.  It’s hard to dispute the significance of the increase on a percentage basis and yet many argue that this figure still woefully lags 30 years of cumulative inflation and should in fact, be somewhere well above $10.00.  Despite the math, roughly half of the nation’s frontline retail workers earn less than $10.00 per hour.  Which raises the question, how can a retail sales associate relate to the consumer who may be spending more on pair of pants than the sales associate themselves will gross that day?

Despite the escalating tension the income gap creates, approaches on the part of retail companies have remained relatively uncreative over the last 30 years.  Programs aimed at better hiring, increased training and commissions in lieu of base pay have all been relatively standard responses.  None of these truly address the issue of retail employees who are losing economic and social ground, leaving them vulnerable in an increasingly volatile economic landscape.

To be fair, there are industry exceptions. The Container Store, for example, claims to pay its employees a rate between 50 and 100% better than industry averages.  They also choose to disregard pre-defined wage scales or caps and instead place emphasis on individual merit and performance.

Online retailer Zappos takes a slightly different approach, paying its frontline call center employees slightly below average base wages but providing a benefit package, including 100% paid health care and paid time off, which substantially exceeds industry norms.  The result is a total compensation package that delivers a greater total value. This is in spite of the fact that only 25% of Zappos customer interactions come via their call center.  It’s these personal, live human interactions however, that Zappos leadership regards as important moments of truth for the brand and is thus prepared to invest accordingly.

It’s worth noting that both The Container Store and Zappos consistently rank among the nations top retail companies by both customers and employees alike.

Getting beyond money

This is not to imply that wages and benefits alone deliver employee satisfaction.  There’s ample research to suggest that true employee satisfaction is driven by more intrinsic stimuli such as recognition, belonging, autonomy and sense of purpose.  However, when wages are so low that even basic needs like housing, education and nutrition can’t be met, other more existential needs become moot.  According to Daniel Pink, author of the book Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us, companies need to pay their people at least enough to take “the problem of money off the table.”  This may be a different figure for every employer.  But until they do, Pink suggests, it will remain a preoccupation and a deterrent to performance.

A Business Problem

Stripping the social and political sentiment out of the question and looking at the issue of retail wages purely from a business standpoint may provide at least some clarity.

The question for all businesses including retailers may actually be quite simple.  If people (the people in their stores) truly represent their greatest competitive advantage and the critical medium through which consumers experience the brand, then business expenditure and investment should be guided accordingly. Furthermore, if the goal of the business is not only to compete but to dominate the human brand experience, then it must ignore minimum wage guidelines and target instead a rate of pay and package of compensation that begins (at least incrementally) to bridge the social and economic gap between staff and the customers they serve.

Has Augmented Reality (Finally) Come of Age

Saturday, August 6th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

It’s been almost a year ago that I spoke with Maarten Lens-Fitzgerald, one of the co-founders of Layar and a pioneer in the development of augmented reality or “A/R” applications.  At that time we were discussing the potential for a battle between brands over virtual real estate as companies awaken to the opportunity to create augmented reality stores in high traffic public places, such as Nike’s installation in New York.

Maarten’s passion and excitement about A/R was palpable and we had a great conversation about its future.  Like many others, I saw tremendous possibilities for the technology to manifest itself in cutting edge consumer experiences.  This melding of the physical and the virtual seemed to me to be a marketer’s dream.

A/R had a long way to go…

I was also not alone however, in the belief that A/R had a long way to go.  While companies like Nike and Lego were clearly experimenting with the technology, there simply weren’t enough public A/R installations or applications out there to generate consumer awareness of the technology or where to find it – much less how to use it.  Even the marketing community was generally unaware of what augmented reality was.  Furthermore, the technology itself was a little rough around the edges.  Graphics and animation tended not to be extremely clear or crisp making for an often-disappointing overall experience.  Above all, the big question about A/R was one of utility.  Sure, it was cool but was it useful especially compared to other, more developed and trusted mediums such as QR (quick response) codes?

A giant step towards mainstream

This week Layar (and augmented reality in general) took a quantum step forward in satisfying skeptics with an innovation called Layar Vision.  Essentially, Layar Vision is a new system protocol that enables recognition of everyday objects, , overlaying them with digital content-  similar to Google Goggles. It also works much like QR code technology does but in this case, the object itself acts as the code.  Just scan the object using the Layar app and you’ll immediately be able to see the digital content attached to it.

Magazines, books, food packages, cars or any other object can be recognizable to the program and instantly overlay it with digital information which the user can then interact with.  The conceivable applications for it are limitless.

I think you’ll agree after watching the video below that with this single innovation, it’s my feeling that we’ve seen A/R go from being a novelty to something many marketers could find practical applications for.  It certainly takes A/R off the marketing fringe and puts it in a similar arena with QR and NFC technology.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsD0DuPT1GI&feature=player_embedded#at=25[/youtube]

What Duane Reade’s New Store Concept Says About the Future

Wednesday, July 6th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

Retail concepts in Manhattan don’t always make the best examples for emulation elsewhere but there may at least be some strong directional cues to be taken from Duane Reade’s new flagship store, opening tomorrow in New York.

According to Convenience Store News, the 22,000-square-foot flagship store, located at 40 Wall St. will operate 24 hours a day and take a decidedly more upmarket position than previous concepts.  While maintaining a strong focus on health and beauty, the store will also offer a “sushi station, featuring a chef and full menu; a juice market, offering smoothies; a Starbucks coffee and fresh bakery counter; one of Coca-Cola’s new Freestyle machines dispensing 130 varieties of Coca-Cola; and an expanded natural and organic section containing fresh fruits, vegetables, wraps, sandwiches and salads.” There will also be a doctor on the premises.

What seems clear with the concept, is that Duane Reade is building a model for a store that is not simply a place to visit but rather the place to be.  It speaks to the certainty of the drugstore becoming an increasingly central aspect of life for the approximately 1 in 4 Americans heading into senior citizenship.  It clearly positions the store as the place to accomplish many of the day’s medical, shopping and leisure tasks in one, easy to shop destination.

Another and perhaps more subtle undertone of the story touches on what many see as a growing polarization of wealth in America, where the traditional, middle of the road drugstore can no longer serve an increasingly economically disparate population.  Instead, such mid-tier stores will likely be replaced with either high-end wellness stores like this one or bare-bones dispensaries for those with less financial means.  The local drugstore as we knew it, may be nearing it’s end.

So, while you might not find a sushi bar in the Walgreen’s in Keokuk Iowa anytime soon, what seems certain is that drugstores in America will increasingly expand beyond their health and beauty roots, into a myriad of other product and service categories.  For those who can afford the experience, such stores will not simply be places we go when we’re sick but rather places we go to be well – a hub of our daily lives.

Avoiding Your Napster Moment

Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

In a previous post I talked about how companies are often blind-sided by what I call Napster moments.  Napster moments are radical, game-changing innovations that can throw businesses and even entire industries, into oblivion.

I also promised a list of things, that from my experience and research, companies should do to reduce the odds of falling victim to these Napster moments.  Observe most highly successful contemporary companies and chances are you’ll spot some, if not all, of these behaviors.

Here they are, in no particular order:

1. Think radically

Successful companies unlock opportunities by questioning their industries’ most sacred paradigms and throwing conventional wisdom out the window. Apple stores for example, were engineered on the premise that store employees would not try to sell anything.  Rather, their goal was simply to help customers solve problems and relieve their computing pain.  The outcome of this non-selling approach was enormous trust on the part of customers who, in the process, felt more comfortable spending their money (and lots of it) with Apple.  In other words, while other retailers were pushing discounts, staff incentives and tired old selling-skills training, Apple was breaking the first cardinal rule of retail and encouraging their staff not to sell.   Apple’s radical approach to retail resulted in some of the highest sales per square foot statistics in retail history.

2. Innovate in a non-linear way

What made Napster so disruptive to the music industry was its non-linear nature.  It wasn’t simply an incremental and predictable improvement on the industry’s sales and distribution model.   It was a complete rethinking of the way music was packaged, sold and consumed.  Napster didn’t merely improve on current technology – it eradicated it completely.  Non-linear innovation often combines seemingly unrelated things to bring entirely new product and service alternatives to market.  They are more difficult to develop but can create enormous competitive distance if successful.  Vibram, for example, took a non-linear approach to innovation with their “five fingers” shoe design.  While other running shoe makers were focusing on incremental improvements in cushioning, support and design, Vibram conceived a shoe that instead fits like a glove, allowing for a unique barefoot running experience.This is not to imply that incremental improvement has no place in your plans.  What I am suggesting is that if you focus solely on linear product modifications and extensions, you will not last long.

3. Get your head out of your association

Most industry associations have a mandate to make their members stronger and smarter but often fall short because they’re inherently risk averse.  Ideally, they should be trolling the dark waters for the horrible, disruptive things their members might not like, but really need to confront.  However, in many cases they tend not to, for fear of upsetting their membership and losing revenue.  So, while they should be champions of breaking down the status quo, they often do just the opposite, because it’s the status quo that pays the dues. It’s vital that companies not rely on their industry associations as their sole source of perspective and insight.  Instead, create out-of-industry alliances to exchange ideas and attend unique non-industry conferences.  Do whatever is necessary to find out what’s happening beyond the walls of your own industry.

4. Stop listening to your customers

If you build only what your customers ask for, your products and services are certain to be mediocre and cheap.  As Henry Ford said, “If I’d asked my customers what they wanted, they’d have said “a faster horse”.”  Don’t focus effort on building what your customers say they want –they don’t have a clue.  Build what they need but don’t know yet that they need it.  This means confronting the real issues with your product, service or industry and then hiring really smart people to create brilliant and often unconventional solutions.  If you must, hold focus groups to see what consumers think of your new products – not to find out what they think your new products should be.

5. Aggressively pursue your own obsolescence

I know it sounds like suicide but bear with me for a minute.  All business models have a lifespan yet very few businesses actually plan for their demise – for the day when what they sell or do is no longer necessary.  Fewer still actually attempt to disrupt their own model.  But here’s the thing… If you control the obsolescence of your own product or service model, you are by definition the one best positioned to own the new model – at least for a while.   Blockbuster Video, for example, had a chance to eradicate the brick and mortar video distribution model on which the rental industry stood and in doing so, control the subscription model.  But even after being approached by Netflix to explore a potential partnership in 2000, Blockbuster chose instead to defend its dying model of distribution.  Like Blockbuster, the rest is history.

To avoid Napster moments, become Napster

In essence, what it comes down to is that the only sure way to avoid Napster moments is to be the player in your industry causing them to happen.  If you don’t define the terms of change in your industry, someone else will.  History shows that the choice is pretty simple  – disrupt or be disrupted.

Mobile Reality Check Part 2: Mobile Payment

Monday, June 27th, 2011

In this segment, I’m once again joined by Gary Schwartz, CEO of Impact Mobile who offers an expert perspective on mobile payment technology.  We explore the players, the opportunity and some of the issues Gary believes could limit the pace of adoption in North America.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi2k1_aPut4[/youtube]

Is There a Viable Mobile Carrier Option Emerging?

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

By Michael P. Russell

With the increased transition to and adoption of smartphones, the mobile ecosystem remains to be a very interesting space, with new and exciting opportunities continuing to present themselves.  This evolution however still seems to an extent restrained in the US by what most consider the major players, the carriers.  The US carriers continue their attempt to control not only their customers with long term contracts, but also the introduction of devices, functionality, and access to certain content.  This model resembles the once overwhelming dominance of the landline networks, as customers really had no equivalent competitive option to turn to if cost or quality of service generated dissatisfaction.  The door may be re-opening for wifi to be an indirect competitor to carrier cell networks, offering a cost effective and accessible alternative to the mobile communications market. When Google first introduced the Nexus One, I thought they had an opportunity to be really bold.  They could have fired the first shot at breaking the carrier grip on mobile communication and device introduction to the market by increasing the awareness of how smartphones can leverage the VOIP functionality over wifi networks and demonstrate that there is a viable option to the carrier model.  Going back further, had Apple included a microphone on the iPod Touch, that device could have been a great introduction to utilizing a high function mobile device that you did not need a carrier connection to navigate the internet or make calls from.

Why WiFi is Poised to Be the Universal Carrier

People are increasingly making a significant amount of their mobile calls in an environment that has wifi accessibility. In June of 2010, Senator Olympia Snowe stated “Given that approximately 60 percent of mobile Internet use and 40 percent of cell phone calls are completed indoors, utilizing technologies such as wi-fi and femtocells will dramatically improve coverage.” This was in regards to the introduction of legislation to install femtocells and wifi base stations in all federal buldings.  In addition to this acknowledgement, JD Powers reported in March of this year that with the increased trend of people cutting their landlines for cell phones only, 56% of wireless calls will be made indoors in 2011.  That is up from 40% in 2003.  Nielsen reported that the number of households with a wireless network set up increased 8.2% from Q1 2010 to Q2 2010 and has seen a 24% increase over the previous eight quarters. The chart below demonstrates that public free wifi is increasingly becoming more available.  This offers easy access if not yet ubiquitous coverage of an available wifi network to carry calls and or general internet access.   More and more cities are also “lighting up” major metro areas and parks with wifi networks for people to utilize. The question is beginning to arise with more people, why pay for two access roads to the same destination when the vehicle you own can take either?  With carriers, customers are required to pay an additional monthly fee for each device that they connect to the network. Cell phone, ca-ching!  Tablet, ca-ching!  Laptop, ca-ching.  With wifi, the only requirement is that the device have WiFi connectivity ability and you are off and running with no additional fees.

A Market Ready for Dynamic Change

There is now speculation that Microsoft’s purchase of Skype could be a play to affect the existing market.  They fell behind in mobile and even though WM7 has received solid reviews, battling it out with the other prevailing OS’s within the carrier model may be a fruitless effort to reach significant market share.  Microsoft is a sizable enough player to make this kind of effort and drive market awareness.  Their WM7 devices may be the instrument to create a dynamic change.  It remains to be seen if this is the path that they are taking with the acquisition, but I am interested to see it play out.  In addition, Google is also still in a position to make moves in this area.  The Android market share is making great gains.  Google has relationships with hardware manufacturers and they continue to make moves to increase their involvement in the mobile space such as their mobile wallet partnerships.  It indicates their interest in becoming an increasingly significant player in mobile.

Lowering the Cost of Mobile Consumerism

The market trend toward smartphones and the emergence of the tablet market is increasing the consumers’ utilization and fondness for specific third party apps to achieve a myriad of objectives.  They are no longer limited to partnerships that the carriers engage in.  Add in the movement to having NFC (Near Field Communication) functionality in devices for transactional purposes, consumers will be introduced to even more benefits that do not require going through the carriers to obtain.  Need an app for shopping, many malls have wifi to enable the download and or price check to determine the best place to purchase.   Need to pay a bill, check a balance or make a purchase, the  home, office, library, or coffee shop most likely offers a wifi connection to do so. It takes time to reach a tipping point in the market, to get people to transition from one mode of operation to another.  Understanding the drivers of demand that motivate consumption will help companies in their efforts to potentially turn the ship  Bottom line costs, especially in our current environment could drive customers to a more cost effective mobile alternative.  Having a way to reduce costs associated with making mobile calls anywhere and having access to mobile data, could be a significant motivation at this time. Consumers will increasingly become aware that there is no need, based on their usage, for them to pay a gate keeper multiple times for access to a network.  The trend of more consumers cutting their landline home phones and transitioning from cable TV to watching programs online, demonstrates that consumers will recognize where they can save money yet still get the essential benefits they seek. The realm of possibilities in the mobile communication environment continues to keep this space very interesting and evolving.  The market itself will help determine what paths are viable and the revenues generated by participants.  The potential of wifi may yet demonstrate that it will impact the continuing evolution of the mobile communication marketplace.

Michael P. Russell is a Principal at Open Water Consulting LLC and Founder/CEO Hoorah Mobile Inc.

Taking Search Right to the Shelf

Friday, June 17th, 2011

If you’ve ever searched for a product on your mobile device that you wanted to find and buy right away, you know what you mostly get back are a mix of results, many of which are for online sellers who may or may not even have what you’re looking for.  What you don’t currently get is information on local retailers that not only carry the product but have it in stock, ready to buy right now.

Retailigence, a Palo Alto California based company, is looking to change all that by supplying search tools and location based services with retailer-specific inventory information.

I talked with Retailigence’s Jeremy Geiger to find out more about how the technology works and it’s potential to change the way we search for products online.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMKRN-2ix1A[/youtube]