Why Smart People Ignore The Future

September 15, 2009

“In the difficult days ahead, unquestionably we shall face problems of staggering proportions. However, with the faith of our fathers in our hearts, we fear no future.” President Harry S. Truman

I spend a lot of time talking with retailers and small business owners about the future . The future as it affects their consumers, their competitors, their industry and of course their unique businesses. We discuss social, economic, technological, environmental and political trends and then synthesize them into meaningful, realistic implications for their business. Once the implications of these future trends are clearly understood, we begin formulating strategies to address them, ensuring the long-term success of the business. It all sounds entirely rational doesn’t it?

Why then do some business owners so often ignore the future? It’s not because they aren’t smart people – they most certainly are. Yet, there are examples everywhere of smart people ignoring the future.

In the book, Future Inc. author Eric Garland points to how an almost willful disregard for the future has impacted the music industry – an industry filled with very smart people. For almost a decade, record executives stood by and watched increased internet usage, digital music and file sharing conspire to eat them alive. And while Apple quietly revolutionized the way music is purchased and enjoyed in the world, the recording industry opted instead to sue their customers, music loving teenagers, by the thousands.

So, we come back to the question, why do smart people ignore the future? Why do they seemingly disregard and discount key trends and changes that can spell opportunity or in some cases disaster for their business?

I think there are several reasons – none of which constitute a valid argument against planning ahead but here they are:

We ignore the future because…	We shouldn’t ignore the future because…
We’re Scared: The future can be scary because we don’t understand it and our instincts train us to fear what we don’t understand. Without foresight the future can simply be overwhelming.	Even a basic understanding of prevailing trends quickly makes the future clearer. With some insight into the events to come, we can begin to transform our fear of the future into curiosity. It’s at this point that we can begin to create a productive, forward-looking strategy.
We Hate Change: We think that if we open ourselves up to what the future holds it will necessitate that we change. We may have to leave the comfort of our current understanding and venture into the world of “I don’t know”. As long as we ignore the future, we can stave off the need to change.	The long-term winners in business embrace change. They accept it as the only route to growth and progress. Ultimately it’s not the largest or most powerful companies that survive but the ones most capable of adapting to change.
We’re too busy dealing with today: The things we need to do today consume all our attention leaving us no time to consider the future.	The truth is, most companies are actually too busy dealing with yesterday. The shipment that didn’t arrive yesterday. The customer complaint that came the day before that. Or following up on last month’s accounts payable issue. It’s the past, not the present that prevents companies from studying the future. This is not to suggest that we disregard the work at hand. However, if you ignore the future long enough, there may cease to be a present to worry about …just ask General Motors.
We don’t care: There will always be an element of unabashed complacency in business. Some businesses have achieved as much success as they care to, or they may be at a point where they simply want to sell and get out. Regardless, complacency is the enemy of change.	Businesses that study and integrate trending often have higher market values than their out-of-touch counterparts. What business would you rather buy – one that was old, tired and behind the times or one that was on-trend, current and plugged in?
*We think* we are prepared:** Experts estimate that at least a third of baby boomers are totally unprepared for retirement and don’t know it. Similarly, studies show few small businesses are adequately prepared for the future. However, a surprising number firmly believe that they are. Many claim that their customers keep them apprised of the future on a daily basis.	The idea that your customers will inform your knowledge of the future is simply false. Customers have no idea what will happen in your business ten years from now. Nor do they care. Customers live in the now. Unless you can articulate a clearly formulated strategy to the future, you don’t have one. It’s just that simple. And you can’t formulate a strategy without gaining insight into the future.
We can’t visualize the pay-off: We’re trained as business people to look for ROI. For every dollar we spend we should get a defined payback, within a defined period.	The future strategy is like a high interest savings bond that pays you later. The immediate outputs of future work are models, projections and most importantly, strategic options. With these in hand, you can begin to craft the tactics that will lead you to the future you desire. The evolving image of your business that you aspire to. Then and only then, will you realize the ROI of future work.