Retailing Through The Trough Of Disillusionment

By Doug Stephens

It seemed that just a year or two ago the retail world was bracing for technology to turn it on its head. From augmented and virtual reality to 3D printing and beacons, the industry seemed set for a complete reinvention at the hands of these (and other) breakthrough technologies. Even omnichannel retail, a seemingly illusive concept, finally appeared poised for primetime.

And yet, here we are in 2016 and few, if any of these things have really gained a significant foothold in the mainstream retail industry. Virtual reality is still largely being toyed with by brands in what many would characterize as fascinating but frivolous experiments. Augmented reality hasn’t really found a place in marketers’ hearts much less in their budgets. The Internet Of Things and connected home technology hasn’t gone much beyond connecting light switches, running shoes and doorbells to our mobile devices. And beacons, once hailed as the new darling of in-store experience have been almost exclusively deployed to do what retailers do best – push even more unwanted messaging at unwitting consumers.

I’ve long been advocating and speaking about these and other new technologies, that have such enormous potential to catapult us into the new era of retail. Very few of these however, have yet to move beyond their initial “coolness” to find meaningful and relevant applications in everyday retail situations. Although provocative, most have so far failed to deliver the historic breakthroughs they seemed to promise and have fallen short of our high expectations.

The Post-Hype Hangover

In fact, this place we find ourselves in is not new. We are now directly in what Gartner Research coined The Trough Of Disillusionment – the period immediately following the peak of hype about a particular technology(ies), where enthusiasm wanes. In this trough, retailers find themselves largely disappointed with early trials, the pioneering startups that brought the technologies to the market begin thinning and once robust levels of venture investment in their platforms begins to atomize. The herds of vendors in each tech category begin to thin, leaving only the best funded and talented in their field.

Now Is The Time To Invest

It’s precisely at this point that the most astute retailers should double-down in their interest, investments and experimentation in these technologies and the host of others in the market today. And, conversely, if businesses have been on the sidelines up until now, they should be jumping in with both feet. This is perhaps the most opportune time of all.

I say this because history shows us that just beyond the trough of disillusionment lies what Gartner calls the “Slope of Enlightenment”, the period in which the most major innovations and exponential progress usually take place.   This is the point where technology providers discover more relevant and meaningful applications. Where conventional infrastructure and systems bend to accommodate new technologies. Where user interfaces improve so as to provide significant access and benefit. It’s also in this very important time that seemingly tangential technologies can combine to deliver exponential breakthroughs. In short, technology delivers value in the mainstream.

So my message to retailers everywhere is to hang on. Have faith. We’ve been here before. The television, the automobile, the personal computer, and yes, even the mobile phone – all have paid their dues in the trough of disillusionment. And only those business leaders with the courage maintain their focus on the future, will reap the enormous benefits of what’s to come.