Archive for the ‘The Future’ Category

The Future is Temporary: Retailing in A Pop-Up World

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

By Doug Stephens

Reebok pop-up store New York City

The concept of pop-up retail has been around for more than a decade.  Vacant, a company out of Los Angeles, California is credited with pioneering the concept of pop-up shops in North America, after seeing similar concepts in Tokyo.  They observed that Japanese consumers would sometimes line up for hours to buy limited edition goods.  Once stock was sold out, the store would simply close until new stock arrived.  This led Vacant to innovate the current model for pop-up, whereby stores would open for a defined period and then simply close, only to pop up later in a different location.

Until 2007 however, pop-up shops, while intriguing, were regarded largely as a novelty.  The retail industry remained dominated by the foundational precept that stores were more permanent things.   The goal of most retailers remained long-term, favorable leases in locations with trusted consumer traffic levels. This was how retail was done and how it was won.

Popping Up Out of the Ashes

The economic collapse of 2008 brought new opportunities for pop-up retail.  Landlords who were reeling from fallout in the commercial real estate market entertained previously unthinkable, short-term agreements for their space, paving the way for a host of temporary retail installations.  From Los Angeles to the mean streets of New York, the economic meltdown spurred a brilliant series of unique and daring pop-up concepts.

Above all else, these concepts seemed to breathe new life into a retail industry that had become fat and lazy, in the days leading up to the financial crisis.  Retail had too long depended on excess consumer spending to buoy demand. Only when the bottom fell out of the market was it apparent just how unremarkable most retail had become.

In a sea of sameness, these unique and fleeting pop-ups caught the attention of consumers and made retail interesting again.

From Novelty to Strategy

Today, pop-up has become a legitimate channel strategy.  Everyone from Walmart to Hermes has turned to these temporary formats to reach consumers where their full-line stores couldn’t.

Entire cities have embraced the concept of pop-up retail as a means of revitalizing urban neighborhoods.  One example, Oakland California’s Pop Up Hood concept, offered 6 months of rent-free space to independent merchants to test out their retail concepts in designated parts of Oakland.

Even entertainment moguls Jay-Z and Kanye West opened a pop-up shop last year in New York City to commemorate the release of Watch the Throne.  The store was open for one weekend only.

Technology is also fueling more creative approaches to pop up.  Augmented reality applications are transforming inanimate spaces into engaging consumer buying portals – trips through the looking glass.  Net-A-Porter’s recent launch of its Karl Lagerfeld line, whereby the outside of the store became a living interaction point for mobile device wielding consumers, is one such recent example.

Net-A-Porter uses augmented reality to wow crowds at their Karl pop-up stores

Commercial Real Estate Redefined

What these and other concepts point to is an historic move away from retail being solely about established patterns of consumer traffic and purchase intent based on familiarity.  The new consumer is seeking surprise and excitement from retail and is in many ways returning to its pre-industrial revolution roots and the concept of the travelling market.

For the commercial real estate industry, the writing may be on the temporary wall.  The success of pop-up retail signifies the need for less permanent real estate overall.  It’s logical to expect more retail chains to move to a mix of flagship (got to be there) locations and opportunistic, temporary installations to create excitement and capture sales. The commercial real estate professional of the future may be relied upon as much for their keen sense of guerilla marketing instinct as they are for their knowledge of the market overall.

Let’s Get Visual: Marketing in a post-text world

Sunday, February 12th, 2012

By Doug Stephens

As you read this post, you are digesting a form of content that represents a quickly diminishing proportion of the total web content you consume each day.  The written web is steadily becoming a thing of the past.

By 2013 Cisco estimates that 90% of all consumer IP traffic will be video.  If you think this sounds implausible, consider that even today video represents well over 50% of all consumer traffic.  Social bookmarking site Pinterest recently hit 10 million unique monthly users faster than any other site in history.  Infographics, a marriage of visual design and data, have become a common means of helping us digest and contextualize complex data sets.  Even traditional newspapers are increasingly turning to the infographic as a means of getting the story across to readers, giving welcomed relief from the graphs, charts and tables traditionally used by media to convey data.  Even resumes are moving from text to graphics, with sites like visualizeme.com and others turning the traditional, dull resume into a thing of the past.

This move to a visual web makes sense when you consider the avalanche of information that the typical consumer is coping with today.  A 2009 University of California San Diego study estimated that the average consumer was already being exposed to about 34 gigabytes of information or 100,000 words per day.  With dramatic increases to both processing power and the ubiquity of mobile technology in the 3 years since the study, one can only assume these figures would be even more mind-boggling now.  Thus, it follows that our minds are seeking visual breaks – a respite from the enormous glut of data coming at us.  Images and video give us that.

What it means for brands, manufacturers and retailers who haven’t already realized it, is that the days of telling customers about your product with words are coming to an end.  Traditional catalogs, brochures and selling aids won’t cut it in a world where consumers are seeking visual and audible alternatives.   Your word-based pitches will be shunned.

The fundamental reality is that as our capacity to process information steadily increases, our predilection for words will steadily diminish. Our brains are subconsciously seeking messages that provide our eyes these visual resting points.  In other words, the brand with the best pictures, graphics or video will likely win – regardless of what they sell.

This means reimagining your business, your brand and your product through all visual tools at your disposal. It means exploring your brand through the lenses of Youtube, Flickr, Pinterest, Tumblr and other visually based social tools.  It means revisiting websites with an eye to crystalizing thoughts and ideas into images and sounds, instead of words.  It means showing consumers instead of telling them.

Welcome to the visual web.

The One and Only Question Facing Sears

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

By Doug Stephens

Amid the sounds of tearing gift wrap and popping champagne corks, ailing giant Sears Holdings Corp. announced over the holidays its intent to close as many as 120 stores.  This of course, came as little surprise to the industry that has witnessed the slow motion train wreck that Sears has become over the last several years.  The company has desperately been throwing a variety of ideas against the wall in the hope that something sticks.  So, far nothing has.

Yesterday Bloomberg news quoted Sears Chief Executive Officer Lou D’Ambrosio as saying that a combination of more technology and physical store improvements would help to put the retailer back on track and that Sears has to get better at delivering what its customers want across multiple platforms.  Mr. D’Ambrosio by the way, came to Sear’s by way of companies like Avaya and IBM, so he’s clearly no lightweight in discussions around technology.

Few would argue with the idea that Sears lags technologically or that its stores are dingy and dilapidated.   Even fewer would dispute the truth that Sears has to execute across multiple channels to be successful – that’s just table-stakes in today’s industry.

When tactics are mistaken for strategy

The problem I have with Lou D’Ambrosio’s thinking is that I believe Sears real problems are far more fundamental and critical.  In fact, I would argue that both the lagging technology and shoddy store conditions at Sears stores are symptoms of a far more deadly syndrome and one that goes to the very root of the company.  In my opinion what’s killing Sears is a complete and utter lack of clear and forward-looking vision.  No one has created a cogently articulated picture of what the Sears of the future looks like.  No one has made a promise to consumers about delivering something remarkable or uniquely valuable.

It’s a classic example of a business mistaking tactics for strategy.  Last year the “strategy” was licensing store space to Sear’s vendors.  This year it’s renovations and technology.  Who knows what will it be next week, month or year.   Certainly not the store staffer responsible for representing the brand to the consumer.  And therein lies the problem.  Sears has lost all sense of brand essence and purpose.

The one and only question

Frankly, there’s  only one question that the leadership at Sears needs to answer.  “What can Sears offer the world that the world can’t get somewhere else?”  The answer to that one question becomes the cornerstone for the entire strategy going forward. It becomes the prime occupation of every Sears employee – from Mr. D’Ambrosio down.  The answer to that question is all that matters.

If the answer is “nothing”, then there’s no technology or store renovation plan on earth that will save Sears.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Problem With Mobile Wallet No One is Talking About

Monday, November 14th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

If you own a credit card, it’s entirely possible that you’ve run into situations where your card won’t work.  Maybe your credit limit was exceeded, your mag stripe lost its mojo or maybe the entire payment network was just temporarily down.  Whatever the case, they’re not pleasant situations but can usually be overcome with some other method of payment –  cash, debit, or another credit card perhaps.

What you’ve never had to worry about is dealing with a credit card with a dead battery.   But that’s precisely what could happen in a world where all payment methods are contained on your mobile devices.  When you need it most, you may simply not have power.   Imagine travelling and running out of juice, just as you need to buy a ticket for a departing train.  Or having your phone die just as your bill is presented to you in the restaurant.

The recent introduction of the iPhone 4S brings this potential problem to the foreground, with users complaining of as little as 5 hours of battery life.   And plugging in isn’t always possible when you’re on the go.

It’s a problem that will need to be solved and there are several possible ways.  Either device manufacturers will need to extend battery lives considerably or users will have to carry backup power supplies.

There is also a potential third solution in the form of inductive charging zones, which would enable wireless re-charging of mobile devices either on or in the proximity of a charging station built into various surfaces.  In other words, surfaces in restaurants, on trains, airplanes and anywhere that people are on the go, will be equipped with inductive charging technology, keeping devices charging while idle.

As we struggle to get our heads around the significant issues of privacy, security and banking infrastructure that mobile wallet presents, what could ultimately undermine its speed of adoption may come down to simple battery life.

The Manufacture it Yourself Economy

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

Technology has given rise to a steady evolution whereby consumers are increasingly becoming producers. Music, publishing, printing, design, software development, and video are only a few of the areas that have been touched by this rapid transformation.   With it has come massive economic disruption as entire industries, like the printing industry for example, have felt the effects of the “pro-sumer” movement. But what if we could take it a step further and move from being mere producers of data, media and content to becoming manufacturers of actual physical products?

Imagine a world where we can quite effortlessly produce many of the household items we need on a daily basis, such as tools, household accessories, toys etc., What if many of these things could be manufactured in the comfort of our own home.  Imagine having the ability to create the things we need, as we need them, one at a time in any design we prefer.

Items created using 3D printing technology

Now, what if I told you that what I just described is not only possible, but that by 2020 it could be commonplace?

Welcome to the world of 3-D printing.

3D printers create objects by stacking layers of material – often metal or plastics – onto one another in the form of the desired object.  Designs are based on three dimensional digital models that can be created using simple and accessible software.

Originally used by manufacturers to build expensive prototypes, the technology is quickly scaling down in affordability with commercial grade 3D printers available on the market for as little as $15,000.00 and a low-end desktop unit for as little as $1,200.00.  And while that might still sound like a pretty steep price tag, consider that the first Sony Betamax retailed for well over $1,000.00 in 1975 dollars, a price seen as prohibitive by many consumers at the time.

While the widespread household use of 3D printing could take a while to catch on, it’s fascinating to consider the radical impact such a change could have on our economy and the manufacturing in general.  How many items that we rely on a supply chain of businesses to produce, could simply be made as needed by consumers themselves?

It’s also fascinating to think about how this technology could be used by children for play and education.  Could 3D printing be the 21st century version of the chemistry set or Lego kit?

Here’s a video with more on 3D printing technology and it’s potential to change our lives.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-uhoww_W_I[/youtube]

How Not to Survive the Future

Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

Today I came across this ad from the United States Postal Service.  They’ve adopted a self-preservation strategy that attempts to convince us that snail-mail’s low tech nature is actually preferable to digital communication because it offers protection from viruses and hackers. “An online virus has never attacked a cork board.” the voiceover says.  Isn’t that a little like saying  a horse would be better than a car because a horse never runs out of gas?

The ultimate goal of the campaign appears to be to convince rational adults who run real-world companies that sending paper statements to their customers makes more sense than digital billing and that customers actually prefer mail!

This is the best the USPS could come up with?  This is the strategy that will assure them their rightful place in the future?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oysFmSVzCnM[/youtube]

Unfortunately, this sort of reaction to imminent obsolescence isn’t unusual.  For example, instead of innovating, the record industry chose to simply sue individuals for downloading music.  Instead of innovating, Blockbuster merely tinkered with late fees on DVD’s. Instead of innovating, book publishers and sellers tried to convince digital readers that they were somehow betraying the sanctity of the written word by using a Kindle.  In the process, they all wasted precious time and energy that could have been dedicated to real innovation and reinvention – things that might have saved them.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting that reinventing a company, a business model, or an entire industry, for that matter, is easy or even possible, in all cases.  There are some notably successful reinventions however; brands like Hyundai, Apple, HP and Gucci are just a few that come to mind.  Many more, of course, have faded into obscurity despite their best efforts.  There are no guarantees.

What is absolutely certain though, is that deception, scare tactics and tinkering don’t cut it when you’re being annihilated by devastatingly disruptive technology.  You have no choice but to innovate aggressively and radically to create a new and relevant proposition.  You have to find a remarkable reason for existing.

So, if your company ever finds itself behind the eight ball and someone at your agency suggests a campaign like this one from the USPS, fire them.  Then sit down and start the difficult but exhilarating work of innovating.

The Future of Retail: The Destination is You

Monday, October 3rd, 2011

By Doug Stephens

Since the time of the Roman Empire, retail as a concept, has been about destinations. Whether a small specialty shop, a department store or a website, retail has always meant going somewhere to get something.

As retail has evolved over the centuries, each new type of destination has delivered an increased level of convenience.  The urban specialty shop put multiple stores within walking distance of one another.  The department store offered multiple categories under one roof.  The big box gave us more categories and products than most of us ever imagined and now the Internet- the biggest of big boxes – is the ultimate category killer.  But while these innovations have improved the relative ease with which we can shop, the concept of destination has remained. We are still required to consciously make a trip, be it physical or otherwise, to get what we need.

This is about to radically change.  Increasingly it will be the products that seek out consumers and in the process, render consumers the destination.

As we move through our day, opportunities to make purchases will present themselves in a completely synchronous and contextual way.  We will not think in terms of destination as much as in terms of opportunities to buy the things we need, wherever those opportunities arise. The “rules” about where we can find the things that we need will be challenged as “anything/anywhere” shopping becomes the expectation and ultimately the norm.

Here are four recent examples of how the death of the destination is playing out in retail right now.

Home Plus QR Code Shopping

Recently Tesco’s Korean grocery chain Home Plus installed innovative subway signage that allows busy commuters to order groceries while they wait for their train.   Consumers simply scan the quick response (QR) codes of the items they want and pay for their order using their mobile device.  The order is then shipped, at their convenience, to their home.

ShopBox

Recently the 3rd Ward design incubator made news with its ShopBox installation in Brooklyn’s Dekalb market.  The “store”, a recycled, retrofitted and completely unmanned steel shipping container, allows shoppers to browse products through storefront-like windows and then using an order-by-text system to complete a purchase.  All items are then shipped directly to their home.  While being highly experimental, ShopBox nonetheless challenges conventional thinking around what a store is.

Facebook Timeline

In a recent post I commented on the extent to which Facebook’s Timeline innovation could be literally revolutionary for retail.  In short, very soon you may be riding the bus to work when you get a mobile Facebook update from a friend that says they’ve just read a great book.  Without giving it a great deal of thought, you click on the accompanying book title in their update and within a few seconds, download a copy of the same book to your tablet and be well into chapter one by the time you arrive at work.  Music, books and movies are the starting point but other products and services can’t be far behind.

TV Adver-Buying

If you like the shoes that Tina Fey is wearing on 30 Rock, pause the show, select the shoes in the size you need and buy them by waving at your television.  Then hit play to continue watching the show.  While you’re at it, say goodbye to the 30 second (or even the 10 second) commercial.  Internet TV will blur the lines between surfing and viewing and allow for contextual product placement within taped and even live programming.  Furthermore, companies like MasterCard are playing with motion and sound driven TV payment based on their QkR payment platform, making checking-out instant and easy.

What about destination retail?

To say that these and other technologies will eradicate the need for physical retail would be overly sensational and highly unlikely. It isn’t, however, an exaggeration to say that our expectations of physical stores will change dramatically.  More and more we will expect these destinations to deliver unique and memorable experiences that we simply can’t anywhere else – digitally or otherwise.

The ultimatum that these technologies and concepts present, however, is that consumers will increasingly choose businesses that offer either anywhere convenience or only-here experiences. Everything in the middle may as well be invisible.

Here’s a brief video of a chat I had recently with the team at the Lavin Agency in Toronto on the subject of how this concept of destination in retail is being revolutionized.

[vimeo]http://vimeo.com/30923966[/vimeo]

Why Facebook’s New “Timeline” Could Change Retail Forever

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

By Doug Stephens

At today’s F8 Conference in San Francisco, Facebook announced a complete overhaul to the user profile page with the advent of what it’s calling “timeline”.  Fast Company’s E.B Boyd characterized timeline as “a scrapbook on steroids” of the user’s life. Events, relationships, photos and video will populate an individual’s timeline, creating a living memory of their entire life.

Moreover, within timelines, users will be able to find, share and even purchase digital content such as music, books and movies.   So, for example, if a friend of yours likes a movie, the functionality will exist for you to purchase and download that same movie instantly from an Apple-esque app store that will reside within Facebook.

Although Mark Zuckerberg refrained from commenting on the revenue model of this service, it doesn’t take advanced math to calculate the profit potential, especially when each calculation begins with 700,000,000+ users!

This leads to the broader question of “If I can buy a song via my timeline or a friends timeline, why not a vacation, a TV or a gym membership?” – “If I can buy digital content, why not products and services, like house cleaning or landscaping?”  And all from the convenience of my profile page.  In other words, rather than looking for the things I want, could the things I want find me?

I, for one, believe the simple answer to all all of this is “yes”.  The only remaining question is when? And while the timing may be up for debate, what is certain is that the foundation for a functional, real-time and socially powered marketplace was laid today.  And for all those retailers who have been questioning the value of Facebook to revenue, you may be about to get your answer.

The Declining Need for and Escalating Value of Human Service

Sunday, September 18th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

Technology has been steadily reducing the number of human service interactions we require in an average day. For at least the last decade, the list of what we as consumers can do for ourselves is growing rapidly.   Between kiosks, web based solutions and mobile apps, most routine customer service functions (product knowledge, price checks, inventory inquiries etc.) are now completely do-it-yourself.

With this “self-serve revolution” in place, it’s easy to regard human, person-to-person service as a somewhat archaic commodity for which the market value must be dropping.  I’ve actually heard retail executives say as much, inferring that customer service people have become merely low value cogs in the machine.  Not only do I completely disagree, but I’d go so far as to say that any company that adopts this attitude is making a colossal and potentially fatal mistake.

There’s no app for empathy

What technology has done is to automate the most routine and repetitive customer service tasks; the real mind numbing stuff that deserved to be mechanized.  What is hasn’t done (at least not yet) is automate advanced problem solving skills, empathy and likeability.  Hence, customer service as we know it, is evolving to become less about functional skills and more about cognitive reasoning and emotional intelligence – the really hard stuff!

Technology hasn’t lowered the value of personal service, it’s raised it.  As the need for personal, human service declines, its value in circumstances where it is required becomes exponentially higher!  It’s precisely because we can do so much ourselves that when we encounter something we can’t, it’s literally jarring.  Consequently, the stakes are immediately higher.  These are situations where the customer has already reviewed your frequently asked questions board, called your automated help line and read your user’s manual.  They’ve made every attempt to solve their own problem – all to no avail.  The only remaining option is to call an expert who can help.  The human being they call or visit at your business is the last and most vital stopping block between your customer and your competitor’s doorstep.

Moments of Truth

A great example of a company that gets this concept is Zappos. 75% of Zappos sales are transacted without any interference from a human being – all totally systematized.  Most businesses would invest proportionately in the side of the business that generates the majority of sales – the automated 75%.  And yet, Zappos puts incredible emphasis on the hiring, training and compensation of the people who respond to the 25% of sales that do require personal service.  The rationale is simple; the 25% personal sales are regarded as do-or-die moments of truth when the system won’t cut it and when the customer needs the brand to truly perform.  These are the sales that create memorable experiences and word of mouth.  To skimp on talent at these most pivotal circumstances discredits the entire brand.

The best analogy I’ve heard is that the role of the customer service person today is much like that of an airline pilot.  The pilot is not paid to fly the plane – that’s almost completely done by the autopilot system.  Rather, the pilot is paid to be there in the critical moment when the system fails.

Spend Shift and the new era of consumerism

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

By Doug Stephens

The economic recovery in North America has been anything but easy but according to best selling author, John Gerzema, the end result may not be entirely bad.  

I talked with John about his latest book, Spend Shift: How the Post-Crisis Values Revolution is Changing the Way We Buy, Sell and Live. It chronicles the collapse of a 30 year era of unprecedented and often mindless consumption and the subsequent emergence of a  decidedly different, values-driven and empowered consumer.

This new consumer, he suggests, is one that all companies, regardless of what they sell, must intimately understand,  if they’re to survive the return to more thoughtful consumption.

John is a two-time Wall Street Journal best selling author, Executive Chairman at BrandAsset Consulting and oversees strategy for the Young & Rubicam group of companies. He is also an acclaimed TED speaker. I spoke with John from his offices in New York City.

Full podcast here